Very easy: double the visits to halve the ranking.
I just blogged at upnaira.blogspot.com about finding the connection, and how rewarding to end up with such a neat graph:
 | |
| Relationship between Alexa rank and monthly visitors |
| Site | %Traffic Reach | Est. Monthly Visitors* | Alexa rank |
| yahoo | 20 | 1000000000 | 4 |
| craigslist | 1.5 | 75000000 | 42 |
| meetup | 0.2 | 10000000 | 465 |
| nairaland | 0.08 | 4000000 | 1385 |
| jobberman | 0.02 | 1000000 | 4653 |
| cp-africa | 0.004 | 200000 | 44206 |
| wemabank | 0.00028 | 14000 | 557445 |
*The monthly visitors numbers are estimated by assuming jobberman has 1million visitors per month (I think that corresponds to a ranking around 5k) and that the traffic reach percentage (data given by alexa for each site) is simply number of visitors for this site / a fixed number corresponding to all traffic. That is, take the traffic to be proportional to the traffic reach percentage.
Well, who wants to do this experiment on a large scale?
Plot Global rank against Traffic-reach % or Traffic-Reach-estimate-of-Monthly-Visitors and see how well the data fit this law.
Alexa.com ranks at least 10million sites, so you could test with that many datapoints.
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Here is a 2003 paper (blog post) titled Weblogs and Power Laws at kottke.org
ReplyDeleteIt basically shows that the distribution of blog links (links to blogs) scales according to a power law. It links to some related work as well.
Here is my blog post on the power law I found. I spent some time this weekend thinking about site traffic, ... ended up writing "Converting between Alexa rank and number of site visitors"
Uses of this work: Your blog is unranked - estimate a ranking. Estimate the monthly visitors (often confidential) to a selected site just by checking out their Alexa ranking (public). Estimate the number of "site visitors" on the internet - 5 billion (well, I never said they were unique visitors)
And so on.
Nice! I like! Just need to get my hands on some Alexa data to play with. Data porn all the way!
ReplyDeletePS: My condolences on the death of Professor Sadosky.
Just saw your comment, Nate. See you soon.
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ReplyDeleteAnyway, an update.
The number of what I called "site visitors" is increasing, I bet, and by now is likely around 10billion * The web usage metric I really mean is an unknown complex of pageviews and site visitor counts (Ref. definition below from Alexa.com/about)
We would expect the graph to shift down and to the right over the years as the web usage or site traffic in the world - that is, the constant (or near constant) product of Alexa traffic rank and monthly visitor count - continues to increase.
If that number was around 6 billion (well, 4 - 9 bn) in late 2012, by now it might be around 10bn say, assuming the web usage in the world has increased by around 10-100%.
From the alexa.com/about page, we have "Our global traffic rank is a measure of how a website is doing relative to all other sites on the web over the past 3 months. The rank is calculated using a proprietary methodology that combines a site's estimated average of daily unique visitors and its estimated number of pageviews over the past 3 months."
It would be interesting to plot a new graph and using the new data, find the new product.
The constant product (the number) today is about 13billion.
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ReplyDelete...and now it's around 36 billion
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